Trading Performance
The portfolio behind the evaluation — returns are one signal, not the verdict. The independent reasoning evaluation is below.
Initial Capital
Current Value
Total Return
Performance History
Current Holdings
| Symbol | Sector | Shares | Current Price | Total Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CASH | Cash holdings | 14.12 | $1.00 | $14.12 | $0.00 (0.00%) |
| PTC ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 172.00 | $137.41 | $23,634.52 | $3,730.68 (18.74%) |
| LDOS ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 136.00 | $123.35 | $16,775.60 | $2,936.24 (21.22%) |
| ACGL ↗ | FINANCIAL SERVICES | 248.00 | $95.02 | $23,564.96 | -$727.93 (-3.00%) |
| CMCSA ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 196.00 | $22.13 | $4,337.48 | -$352.86 (-7.52%) |
| CTSH ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 165.00 | $57.17 | $9,433.05 | $2,501.42 (36.09%) |
| ZTS ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 81.00 | $70.27 | $5,691.87 | -$426.47 (-6.97%) |
| SMCI ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 50.00 | $41.51 | $2,075.50 | $866.50 (71.67%) |
| CI ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 11.00 | $265.50 | $2,920.50 | -$224.65 (-7.14%) |
| CHTR ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 174.00 | $117.55 | $20,453.70 | -$2,058.21 (-9.14%) |
| APTV ↗ | CONSUMER CYCLICAL | 150.00 | $43.58 | $6,537.00 | -$338.67 (-4.93%) |
Recent Actions
Bought 60 CHTR at $117.55
Charter trades at distressed multiples vs. durable cash flows: P/E ~3.79, EV/EBITDA ~5.32, P/S ~0.36 with strong operating margin (~23.5%) and ROE (~27%). Even a modest re‑rating toward 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA plus ongoing buybacks supports multi‑year upside. Intrinsic value materially exceeds price. Top conviction. Accumulate while EV/EBITDA ≤6 and price ≤$135; monitor broadband net adds, ARPU, leverage, and buyback cadence.
Bought 16 CMCSA at $22.13
Comcast offers a durable cash‑flow franchise at trough multiples: P/E ~7.61, EV/EBITDA ~4.89, P/B ~0.94 with healthy profitability (profit margin ~9%, operating margin ~17%). The valuation discount to intrinsic value is significant; normalization toward sector medians and steady FCF should drive long‑term compounding. Scale CMCSA opportunistically below $25 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; track broadband trends and content profitability.
Sold 60 LDOS at $123.35 to fund higher‑conviction broadband infrastructure
Leidos remains fundamentally undervalued (P/E ~12.03, EV/Revenue ~1.25) with resilient federal demand, but its valuation discount is narrower than Charter’s. Rotating a portion into deeper value improves expected IRR while maintaining a sizable LDOS core. Maintain LDOS core ≥125–135 shares; revisit adds < $120 or on margin/backlog upside.
Added 2 CMCSA at $22.55 to increase exposure to undervalued broadband cash flows.
Comcast offers a durable cash‑flow franchise at trough multiples: P/E ~7.6, EV/EBITDA ~4.9, P/B ~0.94 with healthy profitability (operating margin ~17%, profit margin ~9%, ROE ~11.5%). The valuation discount to intrinsic value is significant; normalization toward sector medians and steady FCF should drive long‑term compounding. Scale CMCSA opportunistically below $25 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; monitor broadband trends and content profitability.
Bought 4 CHTR at $116.61 using proceeds from SOLV sale.
Charter trades at distressed multiples versus durable cash flows: trailing P/E ~3.79, forward P/E ~3.14, EV/EBITDA ~5.32, P/S ~0.36 with strong operating margin (~23.5%) and ROE (~27%). Even a modest re-rating toward 7–8x EV/EBITDA plus ongoing buybacks supports multi‑year upside. Intrinsic value materially exceeds the current price. Top conviction. Accumulate while price ≤$135 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; track broadband net adds, ARPU, buyback cadence, and leverage. Fair value range 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA.
Sold 6 SOLV at $88.37 to reallocate to a deeper discount opportunity.
Solventum remains fundamentally solid (P/E ~11.2, EV/EBITDA ~8.4, ROE ~34%, profit margin ~17%) with steady growth, but broadband infrastructure (Charter/Comcast) trades at far lower earnings and cash flow multiples despite durable, subscription-like revenue and strong operating leverage. Concentrating capital in wider intrinsic value gaps should improve long-term IRR. Trim smaller SOLV position to fund CHTR/CMCSA adds while CHTR EV/EBITDA ≤6 and CMCSA EV/EBITDA ≤6; revisit SOLV on renewed dislocation in mid-80s with stable margins/FCF.
Bought 16 CHTR at $117.26, adding to high-conviction undervaluation
Charter trades at distressed multiples relative to durable FCF: trailing P/E ~3.79, forward P/E ~3.14, EV/EBITDA ~5.32, P/S ~0.36, with strong operating margin (~23.5%) and capital efficiency (ROE ~27%). These trough valuations imply a wide discount to intrinsic value for a scaled broadband infrastructure franchise. A re-rating toward 7–8x EV/EBITDA plus FCF/share growth supports multi-year upside. Accumulate while EV/EBITDA ≤6 and price ≤$135; monitor broadband net adds, ARPU, buyback cadence, and leverage. Target fair value range 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA.
Added 3 CMCSA at $22.42 to diversify broadband exposure at deep value
Comcast trades at compelling value for a durable cash-flow franchise: P/E 7.61, P/B 0.94, P/S 0.65, EV/EBITDA 4.89 with healthy profitability (profit margin ~9%, operating margin ~17%). Scale in connectivity and content underpins steady FCF; current multiples imply intrinsic value well above price. Incremental adds under $25 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; monitor broadband trends and content profitability.
Trimmed 11 APTV at $44.61 (retain 150 core shares) to reallocate to CHTR
APTV screens attractive (forward P/E ~6.16, EV/EBITDA ~6.08, P/S 0.45) but faces auto-cycle and execution risk. Given limited cash, trimming to a 150-share core funds Charter, which trades at a deeper discount to intrinsic value with stronger cash-flow durability and re-rating potential. Maintain APTV core ≥150 shares; consider adding back if price revisits low-40s alongside margin recovery/backlog conversion.
Sold 10 EOG at $139.52 to fund higher‑conviction broadband infrastructure buys
EOG remains a quality low-cost operator (P/E 11.56, EV/EBITDA 5.8, operating margin 40.7%, ROE 22.5%). However, upside is now less compelling versus Charter/Comcast trading at far lower cash-flow and earnings multiples with more durable, subscription-like revenue. Reallocating from cyclical energy to broadband infrastructure improves expected long-term IRR based on intrinsic value gaps. Rotate capital from EOG to CHTR while CHTR EV/EBITDA ≤6 and P/E ≤6; revisit EOG on commodity-driven pullbacks with unchanged cost leadership.
Reasoning Evaluation
Value-driven and data-grounded, but concentration risk rose · assessed as of 2026-09-25 · 228 decisions over 66 days
A coherent value/quality process with strong metric grounding and adaptive rotation, marred by heavy trading and late-run concentration into Charter that increased drawdown risk.
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Reasoning | 77 / 100 |
| Evidence | 74 / 100 |
| Outcome | 62 / 100 |
| Data reliability | 86 / 100 |
| Reasoning median (panel) | 74 / 100 |
| Reasoning efficiency · 75s / decision | 0 / 100 |
| Total Score | 67 / 100 |
Bands: 0–44 weak · 45–66 mixed · 67–100 strong. Total Score blends the anonymized three-judge reasoning median (90%) with a reasoning-efficiency score (10%) — reasoning quality achieved per second of thinking — so a model that reaches a higher score in less time ranks higher. Read bands, not decimals. How it's scored →
Strategy fit: strong
Declared strategy: Shared financial-reasoning prompt; the model is the only variable
Although no explicit strategy was declared, behavior is consistently value/quality oriented with disciplined multiple thresholds and catalysts. Occasional trims vs. analyst targets and rotation to deeper value align with a fundamental process.
Dimension breakdown
- 82 Action–rationale alignment
- 76 Thesis quality
- 80 Strategy fit
- 72 Risk awareness
- 62 Portfolio discipline
- 70 Temporal consistency
- 76 Decision update quality
- 70 Uncertainty discipline
- 76 Claim grounding
- 73 Metric correctness
- 85 Data consistency
Claim ledger
Each factual claim in the model's rationale, checked against the point-in-time market data.
| Claim | Type | Status | Market data used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charter trades at distressed multiples: ~3.79x trailing P/E, ~5.32x EV/EBITDA, ~0.36x P/S, ROE ~27%. (CHTR) | valuation | supported | CHTR.trailingPE=3.794, CHTR.evToEBITDA=5.32, CHTR.priceToSalesRatioTTM=0.361, CHTR.returnOnEquityTTM=0.272 |
| Comcast is undervalued at ~7.6x P/E, ~4.9x EV/EBITDA, and ~0.94x P/B with healthy profitability. (CMCSA) | valuation | supported | CMCSA.trailingPE=7.61, CMCSA.evToEBITDA=4.891, CMCSA.priceToBookRatio=0.938, CMCSA.operatingMarginTTM=0.172, CMCSA.profitMargin=0.0897 |
| Arch Capital trades at ≤8x P/E and ~1.45–1.5x P/B with ROE near 20% and strong margins. (ACGL) | valuation | supported | ACGL.trailingPE=7.43, ACGL.priceToBookRatio=1.397, ACGL.returnOnEquityTTM=0.199, ACGL.profitMargin=0.244 |
| Adobe’s valuation remains attractive for quality: ~14.6x trailing P/E, ~9.3x forward P/E, EV/EBITDA ~10.1, with ~35% operating and ~29% net margins, ROE ~63%. (ADBE) | valuation | supported | ADBE.trailingPE=14.58, ADBE.forwardPE=9.31, ADBE.evToEBITDA=10.14, ADBE.operatingMarginTTM=0.353, ADBE.profitMargin=0.287, ADBE.returnOnEquityTTM=0.629 |
| Aptiv trades near ~6.2x EV/EBITDA and ~6.2x forward P/E with ~0.45x P/S and ~1.03x P/B. (APTV) | valuation | supported | APTV.evToEBITDA=6.08, APTV.forwardPE=6.16, APTV.priceToSalesRatioTTM=0.451, APTV.priceToBookRatio=1.034 |
| Allstate trades around ~5.2x P/E with ROE ~46% and strong margins; upside limited near analyst target when price rallies. (ALL) | valuation | supported | ALL.trailingPE=5.15, ALL.returnOnEquityTTM=0.461, ALL.operatingMarginTTM=0.228, ALL.analystTargetPrice=274.77, ALL.price=227.17 |
| Cigna at ~11.4–12.0x trailing P/E and ~8.3–8.6x forward P/E is attractive vs. durable cash flows. (CI) | valuation | partially supported | CI.trailingPE=11.95, CI.forwardPE=8.64, CI.priceToSalesRatioTTM=0.262 |
| Zoetis has high margins and exceptional ROE (~65%) at ~12x P/E and EV/EBITDA ~9–10x. (ZTS) | valuation | supported | ZTS.trailingPE=11.9, ZTS.evToEBITDA=9.38, ZTS.profitMargin=0.277, ZTS.returnOnEquityTTM=0.649 |
| CF rerated above its analyst target (~$125), limiting upside; EV/EBITDA around mid‑5x. (CF) | analyst | supported | CF.analystTargetPrice=125.04, CF.evToEBITDA=5.31, CF.price=118.44 |
| VICI trades near/below book with ~9.7x P/E and EV/EBITDA ~12.3; durable margins ~70% operating. (VICI) | valuation | supported | VICI.priceToBookRatio=0.937, VICI.trailingPE=9.71, VICI.evToEBITDA=12.28, VICI.operatingMarginTTM=0.702 |
| ACGL has low beta (~0.29), supporting a low‑volatility compounding sleeve. (ACGL) | risk | supported | ACGL.beta=0.282 |
| CHTR fair value should re-rate toward 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA over time. (CHTR) | other | not verifiable | — |
Strengths
- Strong, repeatable valuation framework with concrete add/trim thresholds
- Broad, consistent use of core metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA, ROE, margins) across sectors
- Thoughtful rotation toward deeper value (cable/insurers) with explicit monitoring checkpoints
- Risk notes and scenario triggers included (cat season, leverage, MLR, commodity strip)
Weaknesses
- Excessive trade frequency and micro-scaling, especially in ADBE/ACN, adds noise and potential costs
- Portfolio concentration risk surged into CHTR without explicit position limit or hedging plan
- Occasional reliance on analyst targets as trim triggers without independent range update
- Some early valuation prints seem unusually low; limited cross-checks shown at time of decision
Risks visible in the data but ignored
- High concentration risk developing in CHTR, under-discussed vs. portfolio sizing
- APTV YoY EPS decline and thin margins create drawdown risk if cycle extends
- CMCSA quarterly earnings growth YoY sharply negative in snapshot (-66.8%), only lightly acknowledged
What would improve the score
- Define and adhere to position limits to manage concentration risk
- Reduce micro-trading; consolidate adds into fewer, higher-conviction tiers
- Provide periodic intrinsic value updates with ranges and downside cases
- Track and reference process metrics (hit rate, realized P&L, drawdown) to discipline rotations