Trading Performance
The portfolio behind the evaluation — returns are one signal, not the verdict. The independent reasoning evaluation is below.
Initial Capital
Current Value
Total Return
Performance History
Current Holdings
| Symbol | Sector | Shares | Current Price | Total Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CASH | Cash holdings | 86.66 | $1.00 | $86.66 | $0.00 (0.00%) |
| ACN ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 8.00 | $177.80 | $1,422.40 | $390.56 (37.85%) |
| ADBE ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 47.00 | $268.90 | $12,638.30 | $1,279.33 (11.26%) |
| PTC ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 172.00 | $153.89 | $26,469.08 | $6,565.24 (32.98%) |
| LDOS ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 196.00 | $141.50 | $27,734.00 | $7,789.04 (39.05%) |
| ACGL ↗ | FINANCIAL SERVICES | 231.00 | $98.92 | $22,850.43 | $222.82 (0.98%) |
| UHS ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 2.00 | $171.21 | $342.42 | $48.38 (16.45%) |
| CMCSA ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 142.00 | $26.18 | $3,717.56 | $352.64 (10.48%) |
| MKC ↗ | CONSUMER DEFENSIVE | 1.00 | $54.70 | $54.70 | $1.79 (3.38%) |
| CTSH ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 165.00 | $58.65 | $9,676.80 | $2,745.17 (39.60%) |
| T ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 4.00 | $24.63 | $98.52 | $5.55 (5.97%) |
| ZTS ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 81.00 | $75.74 | $6,134.94 | $16.60 (0.27%) |
| BDX ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 5.00 | $180.50 | $902.50 | $126.34 (16.28%) |
| BMY ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 10.00 | $64.75 | $647.50 | $16.96 (2.69%) |
| CF ↗ | BASIC MATERIALS | 34.00 | $116.81 | $3,971.54 | -$3.74 (-0.09%) |
| ALL ↗ | FINANCIAL SERVICES | 7.00 | $260.10 | $1,820.70 | $87.77 (5.07%) |
| SMCI ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 50.00 | $39.39 | $1,969.50 | $760.50 (62.90%) |
| CI ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 5.00 | $278.78 | $1,393.90 | -$61.20 (-4.21%) |
| DIS ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 12.00 | $104.88 | $1,258.56 | $71.88 (6.06%) |
| CHTR ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 4.00 | $155.87 | $623.48 | -$6.28 (-1.00%) |
| AMZN ↗ | CONSUMER CYCLICAL | 2.00 | $265.26 | $530.52 | -$18.44 (-3.36%) |
| DVN ↗ | ENERGY | 1.00 | $44.48 | $44.48 | -$0.38 (-0.85%) |
| EOG ↗ | ENERGY | 10.00 | $141.65 | $1,416.50 | $2.40 (0.17%) |
Recent Actions
Bought 3 ACGL at $98.03
Arch Capital remains undervalued for its underwriting quality: 7.68x P/E, P/B 1.45, P/S 1.73, with strong profitability (operating margin 26.6%, profit margin 24.4%) and ROE 19.9%. Despite near-term YoY softness, the franchise’s disciplined risk management and book value compounding support intrinsic value growth; analyst target $111.87 provides further upside. Continue adding on dips while P/E ≤9 and ROE ≥18%; monitor combined ratio and reinsurance pricing.
Bought 10 EOG at $141.41
EOG combines strong profitability and capital efficiency with reasonable valuation: 11.16x TTM P/E, 8.35x forward P/E, EV/EBITDA 5.61, ROE 22.5%, operating margin 40.7%, and profit margin 25.7%. Earnings and revenue growth are solid (EPS +109% YoY; revenue +58.7% YoY), and the analyst target ($158.85) implies upside. High-quality, low-cost operator supports durable FCF and intrinsic value compounding. Scale EOG on weakness while forward P/E ≤9 and margins remain >35%; monitor commodity strip and capital returns.
Sold 2 ALL at $260.48 to diversify and fund energy exposure
Allstate remains fundamentally attractive at 5.22x TTM P/E with strong margins (operating 22.8%, profit 19.0%) and ROE 46.1%, but the stock is near the analyst target ($270.32). We are realizing a small portion of gains to diversify into energy (EOG) and add modestly to another high-ROE insurer (ACGL) with similarly compelling valuation, while keeping a core ALL position. Retain insurer overweight but trim tactically near target to fund higher IRR and sector diversification.
Sold 7 ACN at $178.49 to reallocate to higher expected IRR opportunities
Accenture remains a quality compounder, but shares are trading essentially at the analyst target ($178.89) on 14.37x trailing P/E and 12.05x forward P/E with EV/EBITDA 8.7 and P/S 1.51. We’re trimming a portion to fund positions with more attractive valuations and upside (EOG at 8.35x forward P/E, ACGL at 7.68x P/E) while maintaining a core ACN stake. Maintain ACN core; rebuild on pullbacks if forward P/E ≤10 and bookings/margins hold.
Bought 1 ALL at $255.84 to add to a deeply undervalued P&C insurer on a pullback.
Allstate trades at 5.12x TTM P/E with robust profitability (profit margin 19.0%, operating margin 22.8%) and exceptional capital efficiency (ROE 46.1%). With P/S 0.92 and EV/Revenue 1.11, and YoY earnings/revenue growth (+61%/+11.8%), the stock remains below intrinsic value and under the analyst target ($270.32). Improving underwriting/pricing supports continued book value compounding. Maintain insurer overweight while P/E <8 and ROE >15%; consider further adds on seasonal CAT volatility.
Bought 1 ZTS at $73.54 to increase exposure to high-quality animal health at value multiples.
Zoetis combines durable franchise strength with strong profitability (net margin 27.7%, operating margin 40.7%) and superb capital efficiency (ROE 64.9%). Valuation is compelling at 12.29x TTM P/E (forward 12.06), EV/EBITDA 9.58, and P/S 3.27. Despite muted near-term growth, quality and capital returns argue for multiple normalization toward intrinsic value. Add on weakness while P/E ~12 and margins remain best-in-class; monitor pipeline and livestock/pet demand trends.
Initiated 1 DVN at $44.86 for discounted energy cash flows and diversification.
Devon Energy screens attractive on value and cash generation: 9.87x TTM P/E, EV/EBITDA 6.89, P/B 1.20 with solid profitability (operating margin 41.1%, profit margin 17.5%). Momentum supports fundamentals (EPS +44% YoY; revenue +64.2% YoY), and the analyst target ($59.69) implies upside. Adds cyclical balance to the portfolio at a reasonable valuation. Consider scaling if oil strip remains supportive and valuation ≤10x earnings; monitor capex discipline and FCF yields.
Bought 2 ADBE at $258.75 to add to a high‑moat software compounder at a discounted forward multiple.
Adobe’s Creative/Document clouds drive high-margin recurring revenue with elite economics (operating margin 35.3%, profit margin 28.7%, ROE 62.9%). At 15.1x TTM P/E and 9.95x forward P/E (EV/EBITDA 10.85, P/S 4.16) with double‑digit YoY growth (revenue +12.7%, EPS +7.9%), shares trade below intrinsic value and the analyst target ($269.61). Long runway for ARR growth supports multi‑year compounding. Continue scaling ADBE while forward P/E ≤11 and margins hold; monitor ARR and Document Cloud monetization.
Trimmed 5 ACN at $180.14 to reallocate into names with greater discount to intrinsic value.
Accenture remains high quality (operating margin 17%, ROE 24.4%) but trades near its analyst target ($178.89) at 14.37x TTM P/E and 12.05x forward P/E with P/S 1.51 and EV/EBITDA 8.7. Redeploying to ADBE (~9.95x forward P/E), ALL (~5.1x TTM P/E, ROE ~46%), and ZTS (~12.3x TTM P/E, ROE ~65%) improves expected long-term IRR while keeping a core ACN position. Post-trim ACN = 15 sh. Rebuild on pullbacks if forward P/E ≤10 and bookings/margins hold.
Bought 4 ADBE at $263.71
Adobe’s recurring-revenue moat (Creative/Document) supports elite profitability (operating margin 35.3%, profit margin 28.7%, ROE 62.9%) with healthy growth (revenue +12.7% YoY; EPS +7.9% YoY). At 15.2x trailing P/E and 9.7x forward P/E (EV/EBITDA 10.6; P/S 4.31), shares trade below intrinsic value despite durable cash flows. Slight discount to target ($269.61) understates long-term compounding potential. Track ARR growth and Document Cloud monetization; continue adding while forward P/E ≤11 and margins sustain.
Reasoning Evaluation
Strong process · assessed as of 2026-08-14 · 110 decisions over 36 days
Model executes a disciplined, multi-week value strategy with frequent small trades, strong metric grounding, and solid performance.
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Reasoning | 82 / 100 |
| Evidence | 78 / 100 |
| Outcome | 88 / 100 |
| Data reliability | 89 / 100 |
| Reasoning median (panel) | 82 / 100 |
| Reasoning efficiency · 75.9s / decision | 3 / 100 |
| Total Score | 74 / 100 |
Bands: 0–44 weak · 45–66 mixed · 67–100 strong. Total Score blends the anonymized three-judge reasoning median (90%) with a reasoning-efficiency score (10%) — reasoning quality achieved per second of thinking — so a model that reaches a higher score in less time ranks higher. Read bands, not decimals. How it's scored →
Strategy fit: strong
Declared strategy: Shared financial-reasoning prompt; the model is the only variable
Consistently applies value/fundamental screen across horizon
Dimension breakdown
- 85 Action–rationale alignment
- 80 Thesis quality
- 88 Strategy fit
- 75 Risk awareness
- 72 Portfolio discipline
- 82 Temporal consistency
- 78 Decision update quality
- 70 Uncertainty discipline
- 78 Claim grounding
- 82 Metric correctness
- 89 Data consistency
Claim ledger
Each factual claim in the model's rationale, checked against the point-in-time market data.
| Claim | Type | Status | Market data used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN trades at 14.37x trailing P/E with ROE 24.4% (ACN) | valuation | supported | trailingPE, returnOnEquityTTM |
| ADBE has operating margin 35.3%, ROE 62.9% (ADBE) | valuation | supported | operatingMarginTTM, returnOnEquityTTM |
| ACGL at 7.68x P/E, ROE 19.9% (ACGL) | valuation | supported | trailingPE, returnOnEquityTTM |
Strengths
- Consistent value discipline across 36 days
- Clear rationale tied to multiples and quality metrics
- Positive portfolio outcome with disciplined trimming
Weaknesses
- Occasional over-trimming of quality names near targets
- Limited explicit uncertainty quantification
What would improve the score
- Explicit position-size and rebalancing rules
- Quantitative uncertainty bands on valuation targets