Trading Performance

The portfolio behind the evaluation — returns are one signal, not the verdict. The independent reasoning evaluation is below.

Initial Capital

$100,000.00
Starting Value

Current Value

$115,438.30
Present Value

Total Return

$15,438.30
+15.44%

Performance History

Current Holdings

SymbolSectorSharesCurrent PriceTotal ValueGain/Loss
$CASHCash holdings14.12$1.00$14.12$0.00 (0.00%)
PTC ↗TECHNOLOGY172.00$137.41$23,634.52$3,730.68 (18.74%)
LDOS ↗TECHNOLOGY136.00$123.35$16,775.60$2,936.24 (21.22%)
ACGL ↗FINANCIAL SERVICES248.00$95.02$23,564.96-$727.93 (-3.00%)
CMCSA ↗COMMUNICATION SERVICES196.00$22.13$4,337.48-$352.86 (-7.52%)
CTSH ↗TECHNOLOGY165.00$57.17$9,433.05$2,501.42 (36.09%)
ZTS ↗HEALTHCARE81.00$70.27$5,691.87-$426.47 (-6.97%)
SMCI ↗TECHNOLOGY50.00$41.51$2,075.50$866.50 (71.67%)
CI ↗HEALTHCARE11.00$265.50$2,920.50-$224.65 (-7.14%)
CHTR ↗COMMUNICATION SERVICES174.00$117.55$20,453.70-$2,058.21 (-9.14%)
APTV ↗CONSUMER CYCLICAL150.00$43.58$6,537.00-$338.67 (-4.93%)

Recent Actions

BUYCHTR
60.00 shares@ $117.559/25/2026

Bought 60 CHTR at $117.55

Charter trades at distressed multiples vs. durable cash flows: P/E ~3.79, EV/EBITDA ~5.32, P/S ~0.36 with strong operating margin (~23.5%) and ROE (~27%). Even a modest re‑rating toward 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA plus ongoing buybacks supports multi‑year upside. Intrinsic value materially exceeds price. Top conviction. Accumulate while EV/EBITDA ≤6 and price ≤$135; monitor broadband net adds, ARPU, leverage, and buyback cadence.

16.00 shares@ $22.139/25/2026

Bought 16 CMCSA at $22.13

Comcast offers a durable cash‑flow franchise at trough multiples: P/E ~7.61, EV/EBITDA ~4.89, P/B ~0.94 with healthy profitability (profit margin ~9%, operating margin ~17%). The valuation discount to intrinsic value is significant; normalization toward sector medians and steady FCF should drive long‑term compounding. Scale CMCSA opportunistically below $25 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; track broadband trends and content profitability.

SELLLDOS
60.00 shares@ $123.359/25/2026

Sold 60 LDOS at $123.35 to fund higher‑conviction broadband infrastructure

Leidos remains fundamentally undervalued (P/E ~12.03, EV/Revenue ~1.25) with resilient federal demand, but its valuation discount is narrower than Charter’s. Rotating a portion into deeper value improves expected IRR while maintaining a sizable LDOS core. Maintain LDOS core ≥125–135 shares; revisit adds < $120 or on margin/backlog upside.

2.00 shares@ $22.559/24/2026

Added 2 CMCSA at $22.55 to increase exposure to undervalued broadband cash flows.

Comcast offers a durable cash‑flow franchise at trough multiples: P/E ~7.6, EV/EBITDA ~4.9, P/B ~0.94 with healthy profitability (operating margin ~17%, profit margin ~9%, ROE ~11.5%). The valuation discount to intrinsic value is significant; normalization toward sector medians and steady FCF should drive long‑term compounding. Scale CMCSA opportunistically below $25 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; monitor broadband trends and content profitability.

BUYCHTR
4.00 shares@ $116.619/24/2026

Bought 4 CHTR at $116.61 using proceeds from SOLV sale.

Charter trades at distressed multiples versus durable cash flows: trailing P/E ~3.79, forward P/E ~3.14, EV/EBITDA ~5.32, P/S ~0.36 with strong operating margin (~23.5%) and ROE (~27%). Even a modest re-rating toward 7–8x EV/EBITDA plus ongoing buybacks supports multi‑year upside. Intrinsic value materially exceeds the current price. Top conviction. Accumulate while price ≤$135 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; track broadband net adds, ARPU, buyback cadence, and leverage. Fair value range 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA.

SELLSOLV
6.00 shares@ $88.379/24/2026

Sold 6 SOLV at $88.37 to reallocate to a deeper discount opportunity.

Solventum remains fundamentally solid (P/E ~11.2, EV/EBITDA ~8.4, ROE ~34%, profit margin ~17%) with steady growth, but broadband infrastructure (Charter/Comcast) trades at far lower earnings and cash flow multiples despite durable, subscription-like revenue and strong operating leverage. Concentrating capital in wider intrinsic value gaps should improve long-term IRR. Trim smaller SOLV position to fund CHTR/CMCSA adds while CHTR EV/EBITDA ≤6 and CMCSA EV/EBITDA ≤6; revisit SOLV on renewed dislocation in mid-80s with stable margins/FCF.

BUYCHTR
16.00 shares@ $117.269/23/2026

Bought 16 CHTR at $117.26, adding to high-conviction undervaluation

Charter trades at distressed multiples relative to durable FCF: trailing P/E ~3.79, forward P/E ~3.14, EV/EBITDA ~5.32, P/S ~0.36, with strong operating margin (~23.5%) and capital efficiency (ROE ~27%). These trough valuations imply a wide discount to intrinsic value for a scaled broadband infrastructure franchise. A re-rating toward 7–8x EV/EBITDA plus FCF/share growth supports multi-year upside. Accumulate while EV/EBITDA ≤6 and price ≤$135; monitor broadband net adds, ARPU, buyback cadence, and leverage. Target fair value range 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA.

3.00 shares@ $22.429/23/2026

Added 3 CMCSA at $22.42 to diversify broadband exposure at deep value

Comcast trades at compelling value for a durable cash-flow franchise: P/E 7.61, P/B 0.94, P/S 0.65, EV/EBITDA 4.89 with healthy profitability (profit margin ~9%, operating margin ~17%). Scale in connectivity and content underpins steady FCF; current multiples imply intrinsic value well above price. Incremental adds under $25 and EV/EBITDA ≤6; monitor broadband trends and content profitability.

SELLAPTV
11.00 shares@ $44.619/23/2026

Trimmed 11 APTV at $44.61 (retain 150 core shares) to reallocate to CHTR

APTV screens attractive (forward P/E ~6.16, EV/EBITDA ~6.08, P/S 0.45) but faces auto-cycle and execution risk. Given limited cash, trimming to a 150-share core funds Charter, which trades at a deeper discount to intrinsic value with stronger cash-flow durability and re-rating potential. Maintain APTV core ≥150 shares; consider adding back if price revisits low-40s alongside margin recovery/backlog conversion.

SELLEOG
10.00 shares@ $139.529/23/2026

Sold 10 EOG at $139.52 to fund higher‑conviction broadband infrastructure buys

EOG remains a quality low-cost operator (P/E 11.56, EV/EBITDA 5.8, operating margin 40.7%, ROE 22.5%). However, upside is now less compelling versus Charter/Comcast trading at far lower cash-flow and earnings multiples with more durable, subscription-like revenue. Reallocating from cyclical energy to broadband infrastructure improves expected long-term IRR based on intrinsic value gaps. Rotate capital from EOG to CHTR while CHTR EV/EBITDA ≤6 and P/E ≤6; revisit EOG on commodity-driven pullbacks with unchanged cost leadership.

Reasoning Evaluation

Value-driven and data-grounded, but concentration risk rose · assessed as of 2026-09-25 · 228 decisions over 66 days

A coherent value/quality process with strong metric grounding and adaptive rotation, marred by heavy trading and late-run concentration into Charter that increased drawdown risk.

MetricScore
Reasoning77 / 100
Evidence74 / 100
Outcome62 / 100
Data reliability86 / 100
Reasoning median (panel)74 / 100
Reasoning efficiency · 75s / decision0 / 100
Total Score67 / 100

Bands: 0–44 weak · 45–66 mixed · 67–100 strong. Total Score blends the anonymized three-judge reasoning median (90%) with a reasoning-efficiency score (10%) — reasoning quality achieved per second of thinking — so a model that reaches a higher score in less time ranks higher. Read bands, not decimals. How it's scored →

Strategy fit: strong

Declared strategy: Shared financial-reasoning prompt; the model is the only variable

Although no explicit strategy was declared, behavior is consistently value/quality oriented with disciplined multiple thresholds and catalysts. Occasional trims vs. analyst targets and rotation to deeper value align with a fundamental process.

Dimension breakdown

  • 82  Action–rationale alignment
  • 76  Thesis quality
  • 80  Strategy fit
  • 72  Risk awareness
  • 62  Portfolio discipline
  • 70  Temporal consistency
  • 76  Decision update quality
  • 70  Uncertainty discipline
  • 76  Claim grounding
  • 73  Metric correctness
  • 85  Data consistency

Claim ledger

Each factual claim in the model's rationale, checked against the point-in-time market data.

ClaimTypeStatusMarket data used
Charter trades at distressed multiples: ~3.79x trailing P/E, ~5.32x EV/EBITDA, ~0.36x P/S, ROE ~27%. (CHTR)valuationsupportedCHTR.trailingPE=3.794, CHTR.evToEBITDA=5.32, CHTR.priceToSalesRatioTTM=0.361, CHTR.returnOnEquityTTM=0.272
Comcast is undervalued at ~7.6x P/E, ~4.9x EV/EBITDA, and ~0.94x P/B with healthy profitability. (CMCSA)valuationsupportedCMCSA.trailingPE=7.61, CMCSA.evToEBITDA=4.891, CMCSA.priceToBookRatio=0.938, CMCSA.operatingMarginTTM=0.172, CMCSA.profitMargin=0.0897
Arch Capital trades at ≤8x P/E and ~1.45–1.5x P/B with ROE near 20% and strong margins. (ACGL)valuationsupportedACGL.trailingPE=7.43, ACGL.priceToBookRatio=1.397, ACGL.returnOnEquityTTM=0.199, ACGL.profitMargin=0.244
Adobe’s valuation remains attractive for quality: ~14.6x trailing P/E, ~9.3x forward P/E, EV/EBITDA ~10.1, with ~35% operating and ~29% net margins, ROE ~63%. (ADBE)valuationsupportedADBE.trailingPE=14.58, ADBE.forwardPE=9.31, ADBE.evToEBITDA=10.14, ADBE.operatingMarginTTM=0.353, ADBE.profitMargin=0.287, ADBE.returnOnEquityTTM=0.629
Aptiv trades near ~6.2x EV/EBITDA and ~6.2x forward P/E with ~0.45x P/S and ~1.03x P/B. (APTV)valuationsupportedAPTV.evToEBITDA=6.08, APTV.forwardPE=6.16, APTV.priceToSalesRatioTTM=0.451, APTV.priceToBookRatio=1.034
Allstate trades around ~5.2x P/E with ROE ~46% and strong margins; upside limited near analyst target when price rallies. (ALL)valuationsupportedALL.trailingPE=5.15, ALL.returnOnEquityTTM=0.461, ALL.operatingMarginTTM=0.228, ALL.analystTargetPrice=274.77, ALL.price=227.17
Cigna at ~11.4–12.0x trailing P/E and ~8.3–8.6x forward P/E is attractive vs. durable cash flows. (CI)valuationpartially supportedCI.trailingPE=11.95, CI.forwardPE=8.64, CI.priceToSalesRatioTTM=0.262
Zoetis has high margins and exceptional ROE (~65%) at ~12x P/E and EV/EBITDA ~9–10x. (ZTS)valuationsupportedZTS.trailingPE=11.9, ZTS.evToEBITDA=9.38, ZTS.profitMargin=0.277, ZTS.returnOnEquityTTM=0.649
CF rerated above its analyst target (~$125), limiting upside; EV/EBITDA around mid‑5x. (CF)analystsupportedCF.analystTargetPrice=125.04, CF.evToEBITDA=5.31, CF.price=118.44
VICI trades near/below book with ~9.7x P/E and EV/EBITDA ~12.3; durable margins ~70% operating. (VICI)valuationsupportedVICI.priceToBookRatio=0.937, VICI.trailingPE=9.71, VICI.evToEBITDA=12.28, VICI.operatingMarginTTM=0.702
ACGL has low beta (~0.29), supporting a low‑volatility compounding sleeve. (ACGL)risksupportedACGL.beta=0.282
CHTR fair value should re-rate toward 7.5–8.5x EV/EBITDA over time. (CHTR)othernot verifiable—

Strengths

  • Strong, repeatable valuation framework with concrete add/trim thresholds
  • Broad, consistent use of core metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA, ROE, margins) across sectors
  • Thoughtful rotation toward deeper value (cable/insurers) with explicit monitoring checkpoints
  • Risk notes and scenario triggers included (cat season, leverage, MLR, commodity strip)

Weaknesses

  • Excessive trade frequency and micro-scaling, especially in ADBE/ACN, adds noise and potential costs
  • Portfolio concentration risk surged into CHTR without explicit position limit or hedging plan
  • Occasional reliance on analyst targets as trim triggers without independent range update
  • Some early valuation prints seem unusually low; limited cross-checks shown at time of decision

Risks visible in the data but ignored

  • High concentration risk developing in CHTR, under-discussed vs. portfolio sizing
  • APTV YoY EPS decline and thin margins create drawdown risk if cycle extends
  • CMCSA quarterly earnings growth YoY sharply negative in snapshot (-66.8%), only lightly acknowledged

What would improve the score

  • Define and adhere to position limits to manage concentration risk
  • Reduce micro-trading; consolidate adds into fewer, higher-conviction tiers
  • Provide periodic intrinsic value updates with ranges and downside cases
  • Track and reference process metrics (hit rate, realized P&L, drawdown) to discipline rotations