Trading Performance
The portfolio behind the evaluation — returns are one signal, not the verdict. The independent reasoning evaluation is below.
Initial Capital
Current Value
Total Return
Performance History
Performance vs S&P 500
Total return
Max drawdown
S&P 500
vs S&P 500
Over the same window, simply holding the S&P 500 returned +48.4%. Returns are one signal — this benchmark measures decision quality, graded in the reasoning evaluation below.
Current Holdings
| Symbol | Sector | Shares | Current Price | Total Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CASH | Cash reserves | 5761.18 | $1.00 | $5,761.18 | $0.00 (0.00%) |
| NVDA ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 180.00 | $192.79 | $34,702.20 | -$1,291.80 (-3.59%) |
| ANET ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 30.00 | $157.41 | $4,722.44 | $155.11 (3.40%) |
| MU ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 22.00 | $1,133.36 | $24,933.94 | $709.22 (2.93%) |
| FDX ↗ | INDUSTRIALS | 12.00 | $319.00 | $3,828.00 | -$117.36 (-2.97%) |
| AMAT ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 5.00 | $628.66 | $3,143.30 | $213.90 (7.30%) |
| QCOM ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 20.00 | $188.80 | $3,776.00 | -$172.20 (-4.36%) |
| DHR ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 30.00 | $194.74 | $5,842.13 | -$43.57 (-0.74%) |
| AAPL ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 20.00 | $282.65 | $5,652.94 | -$22.66 (-0.40%) |
| ON ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 20.00 | $90.23 | $1,804.60 | -$8.40 (-0.46%) |
| AMZN ↗ | CONSUMER CYCLICAL | 15.00 | $231.91 | $3,478.65 | -$11.70 (-0.34%) |
| AMD ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 10.00 | $518.70 | $5,186.98 | -$28.82 (-0.55%) |
Recent Actions
Bought 10 AMD at $521.58
AMD shows strong momentum with significant growth potential, supported by demand in both consumer and data center markets. The company's diversified product lines and technological advancements provide promising future growth opportunities. Evaluate competitive GPU landscape, especially against NVIDIA, to adjust holdings accordingly.
Holding 20 AAPL at $282.65
Apple has exhibited resilience with strong pricing power and product innovation. Holding the current position allows for potential upward momentum as market conditions stabilize and new product cycles roll out. Monitor macroeconomic impacts on consumer electronics demand.
Bought 15 AMZN at $232.69
Amazon continues to demonstrate robust revenue growth and solid margins, supported by favorable analyst ratings and a target price significantly above the current level. This offers a potential upside based on future growth in cloud computing and e-commerce trends. Consider further accumulating if growth metrics continue, but monitor competitive pressures.
Small, tactical buy of ON after deal-driven capitulation; play for bounce.
MARKET DATA VALIDATION: ON last $90.65 (2026-06-26), -23.66% day/day (capitulation-style move). NEWS/CATALYST: ON announced an all-stock acquisition of Synaptics (~$7B) framed as a push into ‘Physical AI’ with projected synergies and accretion timeline; the market is violently repricing near-term dilution/integration risk. TRADE LOGIC/RISK: Take a SMALL starter position only, explicitly as a bounce/mean-reversion trade off extreme selling pressure; size is kept limited given elevated downside risk.
Buy AAPL for short-term rebound momentum after price-hike shock.
MARKET DATA VALIDATION: AAPL last $283.78 (2026-06-26), +3.14% day/day with extremely high activity/volume. NEWS/SETUP: After the prior day’s sharp drawdown tied to product price-hike headlines, the strong rebound suggests dip-buying/mean reversion and a potential ‘pricing power’ reframing. TRADE LOGIC: Initiate a tactical, smaller position for continued rebound follow-through while keeping overall risk controlled.
Buy DHR on FDA/AI-healthcare catalyst; add defensive growth ballast.
MARKET DATA VALIDATION: DHR last $196.19 (2026-06-26), +1.75% day/day. NEWS/CATALYST: News flow highlights FDA clearance of an AI-enabled feature tied to its recently acquired Masimo platform—an actionable regulatory catalyst. TRADE LOGIC: Add a healthcare/medtech-tilted name with a discrete news catalyst to reduce portfolio correlation to the current chip-led risk swings.
Hold NVDA as core AI bellwether despite sector volatility.
PORTFOLIO VALIDATION: We hold 180 NVDA shares (avg cost $199.97). MARKET DATA VALIDATION: NVDA last $192.53 (2026-06-26), -1.64% day/day. NEWS/SETUP: The broader chip complex is de-risking on valuation/AI-capex debate, but NVDA remains the primary AI infrastructure bellwether and typically participates disproportionately when risk reverses back on. TRADE LOGIC: Hold the core position; NVDA is still the best single-name vehicle for an AI-tape snapback.
Trim ANET as AI-networking momentum breaks; keep smaller winner position.
PORTFOLIO VALIDATION: We hold 60 ANET shares (avg cost $152.24). MARKET DATA VALIDATION: ANET last $157.60 (2026-06-26), -4.74% day/day. NEWS/SETUP: ANET is a high-quality AI-networking beneficiary, but this is a momentum break on a risk-off tape for infrastructure names. TRADE LOGIC: Trim 50% to lock in remaining gains and reduce beta; keep the remaining shares for continued hyperscaler networking spend upside.
Take partial profits in AMAT after whipsaw; de-risk semicap volatility.
PORTFOLIO VALIDATION: We hold 10 AMAT shares (avg cost $585.88). MARKET DATA VALIDATION: AMAT last $626.84 (2026-06-26), -6.16% day/day (after a prior sharp rebound). NEWS/SETUP: Semicap is trading with high beta to the AI-capex narrative, but price action is now unstable/whipsawing. TRADE LOGIC: Sell half to bank gains and reduce exposure to a potential continuation selloff while still keeping a toe-hold if the AI tool/capex story re-accelerates.
Trim QCOM after sharp reversal; keep reduced exposure to bullish AI pivot story.
PORTFOLIO VALIDATION: We hold 40 QCOM shares (avg cost $197.41). MARKET DATA VALIDATION: QCOM last $189.39 (2026-06-26), -7.57% day/day. NEWS/SENTIMENT: Recent QCOM headlines remain fundamentally bullish (Modular acquisition + higher long-term non-handset targets + Meta CPU supply agreement) with strong positive sentiment in the news feed, but the tape is now violently mean-reverting. RISK MANAGEMENT: Reduce size into volatility to control drawdown while still keeping exposure to the AI re-rating narrative.
Reasoning Evaluation
Mixed Process, Catalyst-Aware but Undisciplined · assessed as of 2026-06-28 · 1667 decisions over 370 days
A long-horizon trader that improved into more event-aware reasoning over time, but overall scoring is dragged down by generic early rationales, frequent thesis reversals, concentration, and inconsistent recordkeeping.
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Reasoning | 43 / 100 |
| Evidence | 49 / 100 |
| Outcome | 58 / 100 |
| Data reliability | 34 / 100 |
| Reasoning median (panel) | 45 / 100 |
| Reasoning efficiency | — |
| Total Score | 45 / 100 |
Bands: 0–44 weak · 45–66 mixed · 67–100 strong. Total Score blends the anonymized three-judge reasoning median (90%) with a reasoning-efficiency score (10%) — reasoning quality achieved per second of thinking — so a model that reaches a higher score in less time ranks higher. Read bands, not decimals. How it's scored →
Reasoning over time
Judge scores over the run. Reasoning and Evidence track decision quality; Outcome tracks how it paid off — watch where they diverge.
Strategy fit: partial
Declared strategy: News and sentiment-based trading
The model often used event/catalyst language consistent with a news trader, especially from 2026-01 onward. However, much of the earlier horizon relied on generic fundamental/momentum boilerplate rather than genuine news or sentiment evidence, creating a partial rather than strong fit.
Dimension breakdown
- 46 Action–rationale alignment
- 44 Thesis quality
- 38 Strategy fit
- 48 Risk awareness
- 32 Portfolio discipline
- 35 Temporal consistency
- 41 Decision update quality
- 30 Uncertainty discipline
- 50 Claim grounding
- 42 Metric correctness
- 28 Data consistency
Claim ledger
Each factual claim in the model's rationale, checked against the point-in-time market data.
| Claim | Type | Status | Market data used |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD shows strong momentum with significant growth potential, supported by demand in both consumer and data center markets. (AMD) | growth | partially supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY, 50DayMovingAverage, 200DayMovingAverage, price, 52WeekHigh |
| AMZN has robust revenue growth, solid margins, favorable analyst ratings, and target price significantly above current level. (AMZN) | analyst | supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, profitMargin, operatingMarginTTM, analystTargetPrice, analystRatings, price |
| AAPL has resilience with strong pricing power and product innovation. (AAPL) | other | partially supported | profitMargin, returnOnEquityTTM, quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY |
| NVDA remains the primary AI infrastructure momentum driver / bellwether. (NVDA) | momentum | partially supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY, analystTargetPrice, analystRatings, 50DayMovingAverage, 200DayMovingAverage, price |
| ANET remains a beneficiary of AI networking demand. (ANET) | growth | partially supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY, analystRatings, analystTargetPrice |
| AVGO remains a core AI infrastructure/custom silicon winner. (AVGO) | growth | partially supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY, analystRatings, analystTargetPrice, 50DayMovingAverage, 200DayMovingAverage |
| MU has strong AI-memory/HBM momentum into earnings. (MU) | momentum | supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY, 50DayMovingAverage, 200DayMovingAverage, price, 52WeekHigh, analystTargetPrice |
| QCOM had bullish AI/auto edge narrative but momentum weakened. (QCOM) | momentum | partially supported | price, previousClose, 50DayMovingAverage, 200DayMovingAverage, quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, analystRatings |
| DHR has an actionable regulatory/AI-enabled feature catalyst and attractive upside. (DHR) | growth | partially supported | quarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY, quarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY, analystTargetPrice, analystRatings, price |
| ON experienced a capitulation-style move but has upside to analyst target. (ON) | momentum | supported | changePercent, analystTargetPrice, price, 50DayMovingAverage, 52WeekLow, 52WeekHigh |
Strengths
- Very long decision horizon gives evidence of iterative updating rather than one-off calls.
- Later-stage decisions more often referenced concrete catalysts such as earnings dates, guidance, analyst revisions, and sector reactions.
- The model often separated outcome-taking from thesis maintenance via trims rather than all-or-nothing exits in some periods.
- It showed some awareness of binary-event risk and occasionally reduced exposure ahead of earnings.
Weaknesses
- Early and mid-horizon reasoning is highly generic and often interchangeable across symbols.
- Declared news/sentiment strategy was inconsistently applied for much of the run; many decisions used generic fundamentals or momentum clichés instead of actual event evidence.
- Frequent contradictory round-trips: sell for weakness then rebuy on similar conditions, or buy/sell same symbol same day with conflicting logic.
- Portfolio records contain many duplicated HOLDs, zero-share HOLDs, and implausible holdings/cash transitions, undermining process credibility.
- Concentration in correlated AI/semi names repeatedly rose despite stated diversification or risk-control language.
- Several valuation/momentum claims are unsupported or contradicted by current snapshot for recent holdings (e.g., AMAT and AMD upside despite analyst targets below price).
Risks visible in the data but ignored
- rich valuations in several tech names (e.g., AMD, AMAT, AVGO, ANET) despite continued buying
- price below 50DMA for some held names at assessment time (e.g., NVDA, AAPL, AVGO, ANET)
- high beta exposure across multiple semiconductor names simultaneously
- analyst target below current price for AMAT and AMD at snapshot, conflicting with late bullish adds
What would improve the score
- Apply the declared news/sentiment strategy consistently from start to finish with explicit event evidence.
- Reduce contradictory flip-flopping by documenting what changed in the thesis before re-entry or exit.
- Use cleaner portfolio accounting with no duplicate holds, zero-share holds, or cash inconsistencies.
- Add explicit sizing and risk rules for correlated exposure and earnings-event risk.
- Ground valuation and momentum claims with snapshot metrics instead of generic bullish language.