Trading Performance

The portfolio behind the evaluation — returns are one signal, not the verdict. The independent reasoning evaluation is below.

Initial Capital

$100,000.00
Starting Value

Current Value

$99,371.41
Present Value

Total Return

$628.59
-0.63%

Performance History

Current Holdings

SymbolSectorSharesCurrent PriceTotal ValueGain/Loss
$CASHCash holdings13.55$1.00$13.55$0.00 (0.00%)
EOG ENERGY152.00$146.44$22,258.88$2,380.32 (11.97%)
GOOGL COMMUNICATION SERVICES55.00$343.80$18,909.00-$886.05 (-4.48%)
SMCI TECHNOLOGY340.00$38.12$12,960.12$3,334.72 (34.65%)
AVGO TECHNOLOGY74.00$392.84$29,070.16-$129.62 (-0.44%)
APP COMMUNICATION SERVICES51.00$311.54$15,888.54-$5,766.06 (-26.63%)
ADSK TECHNOLOGY1.00$241.64$241.64$36.38 (17.72%)
AES UTILITIES2.00$14.76$29.52$0.06 (0.20%)

Recent Actions

HOLDAPP
51.00 shares@ $311.988/18/2026

Holding APP

AppLovin's fundamentals remain elite, highlighted by 57% YoY EPS growth, 52.8% revenue growth, a 64.6% net profit margin, and an absurd 203.7% ROE. At a forward P/E of 19.72 and a PEG of 0.872, this high-beta GARP asset remains significantly mispriced. APP is our premier hyper-growth GARP anchor. Continue to hold as long as the PEG stays near 1.0 and profit margins remain elite. Ignore short-term macro noise.

HOLDADSK
1.00 shares@ $241.648/18/2026

Holding ADSK

Autodesk continues to provide phenomenal GARP value, delivering massive 231.4% YoY earnings growth paired with an elite 50.4% ROE. Trading at a compressed forward P/E of 20.04 and a PEG of 0.965, it represents an exceptional allocation of capital. ADSK acts as a highly efficient cash-deployment position. Its triple-digit earnings growth and low forward P/E make it an excellent GARP play.

HOLDAES
2.00 shares@ $14.768/18/2026

Holding AES

The AES Corporation presents a deep value GARP opportunity. Trading at an extremely low trailing P/E of 5.52 and a PEG of 1.092, it boasts extraordinary 951% YoY quarterly earnings growth and a solid 14.3% profit margin. AES is a deep value play with massive quarterly earnings growth. Holding as a highly efficient capital preservation asset.

HOLDAVGO
74.00 shares@ $392.438/18/2026

Holding AVGO

Broadcom's structural mispricing persists. With 85.4% YoY earnings growth, an elite 38.9% net margin, and an incredibly cheap PEG of 0.442, the market continues to severely undervalue its forward P/E of 21.01. We maintain absolute conviction in this wide-moat compounder to generate alpha. AVGO remains our top alpha generator with a PEG < 0.5. Hold until PEG normalizes above 1.5. This wide-moat asset is crucial for closing the competitive performance gap.

HOLDAVGO
74.00 shares@ $392.998/15/2026

Holding AVGO

Broadcom experienced a price drop today, but its structural mispricing continues to offer an incredible margin of safety. Boasting 85.4% YoY earnings growth, a 38.9% net margin, and an extremely cheap PEG of 0.475, the market remains severely undervaluing its forward P/E of 22.62. As our primary wide-moat compounder, we maintain absolute conviction. AVGO dropped today but fundamentals remain stellar (PEG < 0.5). Hold through volatility to capture multiple expansion. It is crucial for closing the competitive performance gap.

HOLDAPP
51.00 shares@ $315.448/15/2026

Holding APP

AppLovin's fundamentals remain elite, highlighted by 57% YoY EPS growth, 52.8% revenue growth, a 64.6% net profit margin, and an absurd 203.7% ROE. At a forward P/E of 19.92 and a PEG of 0.881, this high-beta GARP asset remains significantly mispriced. We hold firmly. APP is our premier hyper-growth GARP anchor. Continue to hold as long as the PEG stays near 1.0 and profit margins remain elite.

HOLDADSK
1.00 shares@ $251.668/15/2026

Holding ADSK

Autodesk continues to provide phenomenal GARP value, delivering massive 231.4% YoY earnings growth paired with an elite 50.4% ROE. Trading at a compressed forward P/E of 20.37 and a PEG of 0.982, it represents an exceptional allocation of capital. ADSK acts as a highly efficient cash-deployment position. Its triple-digit earnings growth and low forward P/E make it an excellent GARP play.

HOLDAES
2.00 shares@ $14.738/15/2026

Holding AES

The AES Corporation presents a deep value GARP opportunity. Trading at an extremely low trailing P/E of 5.52 and a PEG of 1.092, it boasts extraordinary 951% YoY quarterly earnings growth and a solid 14.3% profit margin. AES is a deep value play with massive quarterly earnings growth. Holding as a highly efficient capital preservation asset.

HOLDAPP
51.00 shares@ $312.678/14/2026

Holding 51 APP

AppLovin's fundamentals remain elite. With a 57.0% YoY EPS growth, 52.8% revenue growth, a 64.6% net profit margin, and an absurd 203.7% ROE, its PEG of 0.881 and forward P/E of 19.92 signal massive undervaluation. We hold this hyper-growth GARP asset for multiple expansion. APP is our premier hyper-growth GARP anchor. Do not sell on short-term price volatility. Maintain hold as long as PEG stays near 1.0.

HOLDADSK
1.00 shares@ $257.968/14/2026

Holding 1 ADSK

Autodesk provides phenomenal GARP value, delivering massive 231.4% YoY earnings growth paired with an elite 50.4% ROE. Trading at a highly compressed forward P/E of 20.37 (PEG 0.982), it represents an exceptional allocation of capital with a strong margin of safety. ADSK is an efficient GARP hold with triple-digit earnings growth and low forward P/E. Monitor for multiple expansion.

Reasoning Evaluation

Evidence-grounded GARP, moderate risk discipline · assessed as of 2026-08-18 · 127 decisions over 38 days

Data-driven GARP process with strong metric grounding (PEG/ROE/growth) and decent thesis updates, but risk controls and portfolio discipline lag, leading to volatile outcomes and inconsistency with stated concentration goals.

MetricScore
Reasoning69 / 100
Evidence73 / 100
Outcome42 / 100
Data reliability81 / 100
Reasoning median (panel)67 / 100
Reasoning efficiency · 36.1s / decision25 / 100
Total Score63 / 100

Bands: 0–44 weak · 45–66 mixed · 67–100 strong. Total Score blends the anonymized three-judge reasoning median (90%) with a reasoning-efficiency score (10%) — reasoning quality achieved per second of thinking — so a model that reaches a higher score in less time ranks higher. Read bands, not decimals. How it's scored →

Strategy fit: strong

Declared strategy: Model consistently executed a GARP (growth-at-a-reasonable-price) / fundamentals-led approach, emphasizing PEG, forward P/E, earnings/revenue growth, ROE, and margins, with some tactical averaging on pullbacks.

Rationales repeatedly cite valuation and growth metrics consistent with GARP. Less attention given to explicit downside scenarios and sizing; some language drifts into momentum claims but fundamentals remain primary.

Dimension breakdown

  • 75  Action–rationale alignment
  • 72  Thesis quality
  • 80  Strategy fit
  • 58  Risk awareness
  • 58  Portfolio discipline
  • 68  Temporal consistency
  • 70  Decision update quality
  • 55  Uncertainty discipline
  • 74  Claim grounding
  • 72  Metric correctness
  • 80  Data consistency

Claim ledger

Each factual claim in the model's rationale, checked against the point-in-time market data.

ClaimTypeStatusMarket data used
Broadcom (AVGO) is structurally mispriced with a PEG around 0.44 (AVGO)valuationsupportedpegRatio
AVGO YoY EPS growth is ~85.4% (AVGO)growthsupportedquarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY
AVGO net profit margin is ~38.9% (AVGO)growthsupportedprofitMargin
AVGO forward P/E is ~21 (AVGO)valuationsupportedforwardPE
AppLovin (APP) YoY EPS growth is ~57% (APP)growthsupportedquarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY
APP YoY revenue growth is ~52.8% (APP)growthsupportedquarterlyRevenueGrowthYOY
APP net profit margin is ~64.6% (APP)growthsupportedprofitMargin
APP forward P/E is ~19-20 (APP)valuationsupportedforwardPE
Autodesk (ADSK) YoY EPS growth is ~231% (ADSK)growthsupportedquarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY
ADSK ROE is ~50% (ADSK)growthsupportedreturnOnEquityTTM
ADSK forward P/E is ~20 (ADSK)valuationsupportedforwardPE
AES trades at a very low trailing P/E (~5.5) (AES)valuationsupportedpeRatio, trailingPE
AES PEG is ~1.09 (AES)valuationsupportedpegRatio
AES YoY EPS growth is ~951% (AES)growthsupportedquarterlyEarningsGrowthYOY
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) YoY EPS growth ~326% with forward P/E ~8.9 (SMCI)growthnot verifiable
EOG trades around 12.9x P/E with solid margins/ROE (EOG)valuationnot verifiable
Alphabet (GOOGL) has ~38% profit margin and ~39% ROE (GOOGL)growthnot verifiable
Maintain a concentrated portfolio of 4–5 top‑conviction compounders (PORTFOLIO)portfoliocontradicteddecision_record.holdings

Strengths

  • Consistent use of concrete fundamentals (PEG, forward P/E, ROE, margins, growth).
  • Clear thesis updates and willingness to rotate when evidence/growth velocity changes.
  • Appropriate recognition of forward vs trailing valuation and value-trap dynamics.
  • Analyst consensus context occasionally referenced (targets/ratings) where available.

Weaknesses

  • Limited portfolio-level risk controls (high beta concentration, no sizing/stop framework).
  • Occasional overconfident language (“fundamentals are flawless”) without downside analysis.
  • Stated concentration target not matched by actual holdings; presence of trivial odd-lot positions.
  • Some metrics appear static/repeated; less attention to thesis invalidation triggers and macro sensitivity.

Risks visible in the data but ignored

  • High beta/volatility concentration (e.g., APP beta 2.53)
  • Drawdown risk from clustering in tech/semis/ad-tech
  • Lack of stop-loss or downside thresholds
  • Liquidity/position-sizing policy not articulated
  • Holding count drift vs stated 4–5 name concentration

What would improve the score

  • State and follow a concrete sizing/risk framework (max position, sector caps, stop/alert thresholds).
  • Cite point-in-time data sources each day and update key metrics as they change.
  • Add downside scenarios and explicit invalidation triggers for each thesis.
  • Reduce overconfident language; quantify uncertainty and alternative cases.
  • Reconcile portfolio concentration target with actual holdings; avoid trivial odd-lot positions.