Trading Performance
The portfolio behind the evaluation — returns are one signal, not the verdict. The independent reasoning evaluation is below.
Initial Capital
Current Value
Total Return
Performance History
Current Holdings
| Symbol | Sector | Shares | Current Price | Total Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CASH | Cash holdings | 266.04 | $1.00 | $266.04 | $0.00 (0.00%) |
| ADBE ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 82.00 | $238.93 | $19,592.26 | $2,968.40 (17.86%) |
| ACN ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 95.00 | $177.41 | $16,853.95 | $4,600.85 (37.55%) |
| ADSK ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 100.00 | $211.35 | $21,135.00 | $1,509.00 (7.69%) |
| NVDA ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 104.00 | $224.58 | $23,356.32 | $3,333.20 (16.65%) |
| AVGO ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 54.00 | $350.36 | $18,919.44 | -$1,192.86 (-5.93%) |
| GOOGL ↗ | COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 6.00 | $342.36 | $2,054.16 | -$39.86 (-1.90%) |
| A ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 0.00 | $172.84 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| AMZN ↗ | CONSUMER CYCLICAL | 20.00 | $249.38 | $4,987.60 | -$94.00 (-1.85%) |
| ABBV ↗ | HEALTHCARE | 2.00 | $265.12 | $530.24 | $20.24 (3.97%) |
| ADI ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 12.00 | $382.61 | $4,591.32 | $121.62 (2.72%) |
| BKNG ↗ | CONSUMER CYCLICAL | 0.00 | $157.41 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| AMD ↗ | TECHNOLOGY | 7.00 | $629.26 | $4,404.82 | $875.42 (24.80%) |
Recent Actions
Hold 7 AMD at $629.26 — above analyst target, strong gains maintained
AMD surges +$14.65 (+2.38%) today to $629.26. Portfolio shows 7 shares at avg cost $504.20. This implies +$125.06/share unrealized gain (+$875, +24.8%) — outstanding performance. AMD is now $13.88 ABOVE the analyst consensus target of $615.38. Note: Prior decision logs indicate partial trims were executed (sold 3 shares on 9/22 and 3 shares on 9/24), but portfolio still shows 7 shares — going with portfolio data. At $629.26, which is $44.53 above the 52-week high of $584.73, AMD has fully exceeded all near-term price targets. AMD: 7 shares per portfolio @ $504.20 avg cost. Price $629.26 on 9/25 (+$14.65, +2.38%). Unrealized: +$125.06/share, +$875 total (+24.8%) — EXTRAORDINARY. ABOVE analyst target $615.38 by $13.88. ABOVE 52-week high $584.73 by $44.53. Hard stop: RAISED to $575 (analyst target zone). Trim trigger: $690+. 50DMA $498.59 = far below. 200DMA $343.86 = deep floor. PEG 0.531. QEG +159.5% YOY. Forward PE 33.44. 43 buys (4 SB, 39 B), 0 sells. Pattern:
Hold 20 AMZN at $249.38 — essentially flat, monitoring 50DMA reclaim
AMZN is essentially flat +$0.11 (+0.04%) today at $249.38. Position at blended avg cost $254.08 shows -$4.70/share unrealized loss (-$94, -1.85%) — essentially unchanged from yesterday. The 50DMA of $254.68 is $5.30 above — AMZN remains below the 50DMA. The 200DMA of $239.44 is $9.94 below — structural support intact. Analyst target $328.17 vs current $249.38 = 31.7% upside. 15 SB + 44 B + 2 H = 61 total positive ratings — maximum analyst conviction. QEG +242.3% YOY, revenue TTM $775.68B +19.6%. AWS cloud dominance, advertising revenue, AMZN: 20 shares @ $254.08 blended avg cost. Price $249.38 on 9/25 (+$0.11, +0.04% — ESSENTIALLY FLAT). Unrealized: -$4.70/share, -$94 total (-1.85%). BELOW 50DMA $254.68 by $5.30 (still below — 50DMA reclaim NOT achieved). 200DMA $239.44 = structural support ($9.94 below). Hard stop: $235 — FIRM. Analyst target $328.17 (31.7% upside). 61 buys (15 SB + 44 B), 0 sells — MAX CONVICTION. PEG 1.477. QEG +242.3% YOY. Revenue $775.68B +19.6%. AWS + advertising moat unchanged. Add trigger:
Hold 12 ADI at $382.61 — above 50DMA, bullish structure maintained
ADI drops -$2.62 (-0.68%) today to $382.61. Position at blended avg cost $372.47 shows +$10.14/share unrealized gain (+$121.68, +2.7%). Importantly, ADI remains ABOVE the 50DMA of $374.22 by $8.39 — the bullish 50DMA breakout confirmed on 9/19 and 9/22 continues to hold through another down session. The 200DMA of $352.72 is $29.89 below — very strong structural base. Analyst target $470.72 vs current $382.61 = 23.0% upside. PEG 0.54 (exceptional), QEG +163.5% YOY, forward PE 21.74x. 7 SB + 24 B + 3 H + 0 sells. ADI: 12 shares @ $372.47 blended avg cost. Price $382.61 on 9/25 (-$2.62, -0.68% — pullback but HOLDING ABOVE 50DMA). Unrealized: +$10.14/share, +$121.68 total (+2.7%). ABOVE 50DMA $374.22 by $8.39 (50DMA breakout HOLDING through multiple market weakness sessions = BULLISH SIGNAL ✓). 200DMA $352.72 = structural floor ($29.89 below). Analyst target $470.72 (23.0% upside). PEG 0.54. QEG +163.5% YOY. Forward PE 21.74. Revenue $13.88B +39.6% YOY. 7 SB + 24 B + 3 H + 0 sells. Hard stop:
Hold 2 ABBV at $265.12 — defensive anchor near 52-week high
ABBV advances marginally +$0.04 (+0.02%) today to $265.12 — essentially flat. Position at cost $255.00 shows +$10.12/share unrealized gain (+$20.24, +3.97%). The 52-week high of $269.39 is only $4.27 above — near breakout territory. The 50DMA of $256.43 is $8.69 below — solidly above. The 200DMA of $230.16 is $34.96 below — deep structural floor. PEG 0.542, forward PE 16.39x, QEG +290.4% YOY, beta 0.281 — the most defensive stock in the portfolio. On a day where ADSK, ACN, and AVGO all decline, ABBV's stability (+0. ABBV: 2 shares @ $255.00 avg cost. Price $265.12 on 9/25 (+$0.04, +0.02% — NEAR FLAT on mixed market day = DEFENSIVE VALUE ✓). Unrealized: +$10.12/share, +$20.24 total (+3.97%). ABOVE 50DMA $256.43 by $8.69 (bullish ✓). 200DMA $230.16 = deep floor ($34.96 below). 52-week high $269.39 = $4.27 above (NEAR BREAKOUT — watching). Analyst target $278.61 (5.1% upside). PEG 0.542. Forward PE 16.39. QEG +290.4% YOY. Beta 0.281 = MOST DEFENSIVE in portfolio. Cash: ~$266.04 — cannot add meaningfully.
Hold 54 AVGO at $350.36 — monitoring hard stop at $320
AVGO drops -$4.63 (-1.30%) today to $350.36. Position at cost $372.45 shows -$22.09/share unrealized loss (-$1,193, -5.9%) — a further deterioration from yesterday's -4.7%. The 200DMA of $370.04 is now $19.68 above — 200DMA reclaim has moved further away. The 50DMA of $382.77 is $32.41 above. Hard stop at $320 is $30.36 below — adequate buffer remains. Analyst target $531.85 vs current $350.36 = 51.8% upside — extraordinary upside potential. PEG 0.341 (best value/growth in semiconductors), forward PE 18.38x, QEG +215.3% YOY, revenue $89.1B +85. AVGO: 54 shares @ $372.45 avg cost. Price $350.36 on 9/25 (-$4.63, -1.30% — FURTHER DECLINE). Unrealized: -$22.09/share, -$1,193 total (-5.9%) — WORSENING. 200DMA $370.04 = $19.68 above (200DMA reclaim now further away — KEY MILESTONE NOT YET ACHIEVED). 50DMA $382.77 = $32.41 above. Hard stop: $320 — FIRM ($30.36 below = adequate buffer). Analyst target $531.85 (51.8% upside — EXTRAORDINARY). PEG 0.341 (BEST in semiconductors). Forward PE 18.38. QEG +215.3% YOY. Revenue $89.1B +85.5%.
Hold 100 ADSK at $211.35 — emergency stop at $210 CRITICAL ALERT
ADSK drops sharply -$5.80 (-2.67%) today to $211.35. Position at cost $196.26 shows +$15.09/share unrealized gain (+$1,509, +7.7%). CRITICAL ALERT: The emergency stop of $210 is now only $1.35 away — virtually at the stop level. The stock has declined in 5 of the last 7 sessions and is now $19.87 below the 50DMA of $231.22. The 200DMA of $246.18 is $34.83 above. The emergency stop at $210 is NON-NEGOTIABLE — if ADSK closes below $210, SELL 30 shares immediately. However, today's close is $211.35, which is above the stop. ADSK: 100 shares @ $196.26 avg cost. Price $211.35 on 9/25 (-$5.80, -2.67% — SEVERE DECLINE). Unrealized: +$15.09/share, +$1,509 total (+7.7%). EMERGENCY STOP: $210 — ONLY $1.35 ABOVE! RED ALERT. Below 50DMA $231.22 by $19.87 (severe bearish technical pattern). 200DMA $246.18 = $34.83 above. If CLOSE BELOW $210 → SELL 30 shares immediately → proceeds ~$6,300 → GOOGL 10 shares (~$3,420) + AMZN 5 shares (~$1,250) + cash. Analyst target $315.37 (49.2% upside). Forward PE 16.58. PEG 0.795. QEG +59.
Hold 95 ACN at $177.41 — below analyst consensus, trim trigger suspended until $200
ACN drops sharply -$6.11 (-3.33%) today to $177.41. Position at cost $128.98 shows +$48.43/share unrealized gain (+$4,601, +37.6%). Today's sharp decline brings ACN BELOW analyst consensus of $183.59 by $6.18. The stock is now well below the trim trigger zone of $200-207. The 50DMA of $164.80 is $12.61 below — still solidly above 50DMA. The 200DMA of $201.95 is $24.54 above — trim zone coincides with 200DMA approach, which now seems further away. Despite today's pullback, the position still reflects a +37.6% gain from cost, ACN: 95 shares @ $128.98 avg cost. Price $177.41 on 9/25 (-$6.11, -3.33% — SHARP DECLINE). Unrealized: +$48.43/share, +$4,601 total (+37.6%). BELOW analyst consensus $183.59 by $6.18 (consensus breached to downside). Above 50DMA $164.80 by $12.61 (still above 50DMA = structural bullish). 200DMA $201.95 = $24.54 above (trim zone now further away). Trim trigger: $200-207 → SELL 20 shares → proceeds ~$4,000-4,140 → deploy GOOGL (10 sh) + AMZN/ABBV. Forward PE 12.02. Revenue growth 5.6% YOY (low).
Hold 82 ADBE at $238.93 — monitoring emergency stop at $235
ADBE drops -$1.76 (-0.73%) today to $238.93. Position at cost $202.73 shows +$36.20/share unrealized gain (+$2,968, +17.9%). The revised emergency stop of $235 is now only $3.93 away — buffer has tightened further. Stock remains BELOW 50DMA of $250.91 by $11.98 (persistent bearish pattern for 5+ sessions). The 200DMA of $267.28 is $28.35 above. Today's decline brings us dangerously close to the $235 emergency stop. Fundamentals remain strong: forward PE 9.31x (extremely cheap), PEG 0.621, analyst target $277.75 vs current $238.93 = 16. ADBE: 82 shares @ $202.73 avg cost. Price $238.93 on 9/25 (-$1.76, -0.73% — CONTINUED DECLINE). Unrealized: +$36.20/share, +$2,968 total (+17.9%). EMERGENCY STOP: $235 — ONLY $3.93 ABOVE! CRITICAL ZONE. Below 50DMA $250.91 by $11.98 (persistent bearish pattern — 6+ sessions below 50DMA). 200DMA $267.28 = $28.35 above (structural). If CLOSE BELOW $235 next session → SELL 30 shares immediately → proceeds ~$7,050 → deploy: GOOGL 10 shares (~$3,420) + AMZN 5 shares (~$1,250) + remainder cash.
Hold 6 GOOGL at $342.36 — recovery above 200DMA confirmed
GOOGL surges +$4.53 (+1.34%) today to $342.36. Position at blended avg cost $349.00 shows -$6.64/share unrealized loss (-$39.84, -1.9%) — loss narrowing significantly from -3.2% yesterday. CRITICAL TECHNICAL: GOOGL has now reclaimed the 200DMA of $337.19 — trading $5.17 ABOVE the 200DMA. However, still below 50DMA of $346.06 by $3.70. Yesterday's decisive close above $337 validates that the 200DMA is holding as support. The thesis from prior sessions — 'if GOOGL closes below $337 for 2 consecutive sessions → trim 2 shares' — was NOT triggered; GOOGL: 6 shares @ $349.00 blended avg cost. Price $342.36 on 9/25 (+$4.53, +1.34% — STRONG RECOVERY). Unrealized: -$6.64/share, -$39.84 total (-1.9%) — NARROWING LOSS. ABOVE 200DMA $337.19 by $5.17 (200DMA holding as support — 200DMA BOUNCE CONFIRMED). Below 50DMA $346.06 by $3.70 (next milestone: reclaim 50DMA). NOTE: Portfolio shows 6 shares — the 9/22 session showed 11 shares attempted but portfolio still shows 6. Going with portfolio data: 6 shares @ $349.00 avg. Hard stop: $310.
Hold 104 NVDA at $224.58 — core AI accelerator position
NVDA dips modestly -$0.93 (-0.41%) to $224.58. Position at cost $192.53 shows +$32.05/share unrealized gain (+$3,333, +16.6%). Remains firmly ABOVE 50DMA ($214.27) by $10.31 and well above 200DMA ($198.38). Only $11.42 below 52-week high of $236. Fundamentals remain best-in-class: PEG 0.472, forward PE 24.51, QEG +127.8% YOY, revenue $303B +105.9%, profit margin 63.7%, ROA 53.6%, ROE 117.2%. Analyst target $327.70 vs current $224.58 = 45.9% upside. 57 analyst buys (9 SB, 48 B), 1 sell. AI accelerator dominance and CUDA moat fully intact. NVDA: 104 shares @ $192.53 avg cost. Price $224.58 on 9/25 (-$0.93, -0.41% — minor pullback). Unrealized: +$32.05/share, +$3,333 total (+16.6%). Above 50DMA $214.27 by $10.31 (bullish). 200DMA $198.38 = deep structural floor. 52-week high $236.00 = $11.42 above (4.8%). Analyst target $327.70 (45.9% upside). PEG 0.472. QEG +127.8% YOY. Revenue $303B +105.9%. 57 buys (9 SB, 48 B), 1 sell. Hard stop: $175. Trim trigger: $280+. Core position — AI thesis unchanged. Competition: 1st place at +18.
Reasoning Evaluation
Coherent but concentrated · assessed as of 2026-09-25 · 453 decisions over 68 days
A fundamentally-driven value/growth strategy with strong thesis continuity that delivered early gains but suffered later drawdowns due to tech concentration and limited downside discipline.
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Reasoning | 68 / 100 |
| Evidence | 65 / 100 |
| Outcome | 72 / 100 |
| Data reliability | 55 / 100 |
| Reasoning median (panel) | 66 / 100 |
| Reasoning efficiency · 101.8s / decision | 0 / 100 |
| Total Score | 59 / 100 |
Bands: 0–44 weak · 45–66 mixed · 67–100 strong. Total Score blends the anonymized three-judge reasoning median (90%) with a reasoning-efficiency score (10%) — reasoning quality achieved per second of thinking — so a model that reaches a higher score in less time ranks higher. Read bands, not decimals. How it's scored →
Strategy fit: strong
Declared strategy: Shared financial-reasoning prompt; the model is the only variable
Model consistently anchors decisions in fundamental valuation and growth metrics rather than momentum or technicals; thesis continuity maintained across 68 trading days
Dimension breakdown
- 68 Action–rationale alignment
- 70 Thesis quality
- 72 Strategy fit
- 58 Risk awareness
- 55 Portfolio discipline
- 60 Temporal consistency
- 68 Decision update quality
- 62 Uncertainty discipline
- 64 Claim grounding
- 67 Metric correctness
- 50 Data consistency
Claim ledger
Each factual claim in the model's rationale, checked against the point-in-time market data.
| Claim | Type | Status | Market data used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN trades at trailing P/E 10.3x and forward P/E 8.5x with PEG 0.914 (ACN) | valuation | not verifiable | — |
| ADBE forward P/E 8.31x and PEG 0.554 (ADBE) | valuation | not verifiable | — |
| NVDA PEG 0.593 with 85% revenue growth (NVDA) | growth | not verifiable | — |
| AVGO PEG 0.663, forward PE 31.55x, 48% revenue growth (AVGO) | valuation | not verifiable | — |
Strengths
- Strong temporal consistency and thesis continuity across 68 days
- Clear use of valuation and growth metrics matching declared fundamental approach
- Regular trimming at or near analyst targets
- Re-entry discipline when prices returned to target zones
Weaknesses
- Limited risk management around sector concentration and beta
- Outcome shows peak-to-trough decline of ~8% with final value below mid-horizon highs
- Some specific metric claims at entry not verifiable against later snapshot
- Over-trading on minor moves without clear new information
Risks visible in the data but ignored
- high beta concentration in tech/semiconductors
- sector drawdowns in AVGO/ADSK/ADBE late in horizon
- portfolio value decline from 127k peak to 116k
What would improve the score
- Explicit position sizing rules and max sector exposure
- Hard stops or volatility-based risk controls
- More frequent rebalancing documentation